Re: AMD planning 45nm 12-Core 'Istanbul' Processor ?

Robert Myers <rbmyersusa@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in part:
> On May 27, 1:36 pm, Robert Myers <rbmyers...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>> Let's see.  Pulling some numbers about the latest debt obligation
>> screwup.  Moody's (not S&P, my error) overrated about $4 billion in
>> debt.  One estimate of loss was about 40%.  I'll use $2 million for
>> the value of a human life.  The cost of the screwup was about 2000
>> lives lost.  But, you sputter, no lives were actually lost?  Think
>> again.  Maybe not 2000 lives right away, but some pretty quickly, as
>> people discover that a key asset lost 40% of its value practically
>> overnight.  How many car bombs does it take to kill 2000 people?
>>
> Yes, I left out a factor of 0.4.  That should be 800 lives, not 2000.
> No, I can't do arithmetic.


That is the _least_ of your fallacies.  So many in 
so few words, are you going for a record?  


1)  Where does the $2 million come from?  I know of no generally 
accepted value of human life and the subject is highly controversial.  
Your $2 million seems very low, but I guess you'd play Russian
Roulette to win a house.

2)  Paperhanging is a zero net-sum game (unlike primary
investing).  Somebody made the $1.6 billion that others lost.
Developers, bankers, builders, tradesmen, service workers.

3)  The loss (or gain) was set when the paper was written,
not when it was sold with negligent ratings.  Repayment by
known marginal borrowers was obviously a bet on continually
rising real-estate prices.

4)  It is far from certain who (other than taxpayers) will actually
suffer the losses.  Much of the paper is held by guaranteed pension
funds.  Eurobanks squawked first because they actually worry, and
occasionally have auditors and regulators who will call them out.

5)  Moody's disingenuously blame a "computer glitsch" when their
methodology and algorithms were negligent from the start which
no amount of software quality verification would catch:
   http://www.tilsonfunds.com/Einhorn-4-08.pdf

6)  The real effect of this and other debacles is to make people
more cautious about markets.  Pay more attention to risk and
price it accordingly.  IMHO, a sorely needed development.



-- Robert