More on ****pping Fuel Costs; Why Globalization Will Continue Along

"It was unthinkable mere years ago, but globalization is starting to
lose momentum. High and holding fuel prices -- ****pping a 40-foot
container from Shanghai to the U.S. will cost ya $5,000 more today
than a decade ago -- are making global supply chains look far less
attractive."

-- Solar Living Inst.

$5,000/container is 12 cents/lb or just 0.001 cents/lb-mile by sea.

A train hauls 1/25th the cargo at 2X the speed with 1/4th the hp of
the ****p so the net energy should be 3X more /lb-mile.  The ****p
engine is 25% more fuel efficient and bunker is 1/2 the cost of diesel
so rail costs 0.01 cents/lb-mile.

Moving a container from China to LA requires the same expenditure on
fuel as moving it from LA to Denver by train.

Semi rig moves 1/400the the cargo of the train at 1/60th the hp for
0.07 cents/lb-mile.

Moving a container from China to LA requires the same expenditure on
fuel as moving it from LA to San Diego by truck.

A PU truck will haul 1/20th that of a semi at 3X the mpg or 0.5 cents/
lb-mi.
You travel more than 20 miles in a loaded PU and you might as well go
to China.

In other words, if you restrict your diet to food trucked into your
town you only have a 150 mile radius of local crop land before noodles
from China may start to become competitive on a trans****tation fuel
cost basis.

The reason this is true is the economies of scale for vessel
trans****tation.  The engine might be 100,000 hp but since it's hauling
200,000 tons the specific power of a ****p is very low, < 1/2 hp/ton.
Only a pipeline is more effective.

Conclusion:

Spiraling fuel costs may increase localization in some respects, i.
e., more consumption of local produce, but it won't really stop
globalization.

And we haven't even broached the issue of the effect of cheap
communications on globalization.


Bret Cahill